For the week of Jul 09, 2012 — Vol. 10, Issue 28
|In This Issue|
|Last Week in Review:The Jobs Report for June was released…and it fizzled. Find out why.Forecast for the Week: The second part of the week heats up, with news on inflation and consumer sentiment, and the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting.
View: Twitter can be a great tool for business…especially if you know how to use it effectively. Be sure to read…and pass on…the details below.
|Last Week in Review|
|“You’re a firework.” Katy Perry. And while the fireworks might have been booming during last week’s July 4thholiday, the Labor Department’s Jobs Report for June fizzled out. Read on for details and what they mean for home loan rates.Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported just 80,000 jobs created in June, with 84,000 private job gains offsetting 4,000 government job losses. Revisions to previously reported April and May numbers resulted in an additional 1,000 jobs lost. For the first quarter of 2012, the US economy put on an average of 225,000 Jobs. But in the second quarter, the economy averaged just 75,000 job creations!
In addition, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 8.2% and the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) was unchanged at 63.8, remaining at a 31-year low. This is a real headwind to the US economy as we need more people “participating” or working relative to those who are not. And that is simply not going to happen as long as the US economy continues to muddle along with 2% GDP growth.
The real question to ask is: Was the report ugly enough to guarantee another round of Bond buying, known as Quantitative Easing or QE3? It’s important to note that additional hints of QE3 could initially push Stock prices higher, shifting cash out of the Bond trade and hurting home loan rates (which are tied to Mortgage Bonds) in the process. This is an important news story to watch in the weeks ahead!
The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows and now continues to be a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
|Forecast for the Week|
|The economic calendar is light this week…but there are a few big reports due out. Here’s what you need to watch:
In addition to those reports, it’s important to note that summer kicks into high gear starting this week, which means that volumes tend to slow on Wall Street as traders and investors take vacations. When trading volume slows, it tends to lead to increased seesaw trading, where the highs and lows could be magnified.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further – a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates continue to reach record best levels. I’ll be watching closely to see what happens this week.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jul 06, 2012)
|The Mortgage Market Guide View…|
|Tweet on Saturday: Best Practices for Twitter!A new study titled Strategies for Effective Tweeting: A Statistical Review provides scientifically based advice to help you use Twitter more effectively.
The study looked at “engagement” (by which it means retweets and replies). According to the results, brands get 29 percent more engagement from their followers when they tweet on Saturdays. That’s an even more interesting stat when you consider that only about 7 percent of tweets coming from brands actually arrive on a weekend.
And here are a few more tidbits from the report:
Those are just some of the highlights from the study that was released in a white paper. You can download a copy of the entire white paper at http://forms.buddymedia.com/whitepaper-form_strategies-for-effective-tweeting.html.
The white paper even includes a cheat sheet to help you make sure you’re following best practices when you Tweet!
Economic Calendar for the Week of July 09 – July 13
|The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
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